Expected DA DR from July 2015: AICPIN released for Jan, 2015

Indian Military Veterans

Speculation of DA/DR from July, 2015 on the basis of AICPIN of Jan, 2015 is not possible.  The 1 point increase in Jan, 2015 AICPIN after 4 months stationary AICPIN is unexpected variation, this type of increase/decrease in future AICPIN making much tough to speculate future DA/DR.  Three situations are given in undermentioned table is showing 117% to 120% future DA/DR from Jul-2015. Readers are requested not to take it final and study the following table.  On the other hand the approval of 6% increase in Dearness Allowance & Dearness Relief from Jan, 2015 is also pending at govt. side, may be announced in 2nd week of March, 2015.  Further, the estimation of two installment of DA/DR from Jan-2015 & Jul-2016 is important for expected pay and allowances in 7th CPC.

Following table only showing the effect of Jan-2015 months' AICPIN increase

Expect- ation	Increase/ Decrease Index	Month	Base Year 2001 = 100	Total of 12 Months	Twelve monthly Average	% increase over 115.76 for   DA	DA announced or will be announced
	2	Jun,14	246	2879	239.92	107.25%	107%
Expected DA from January, 2015 is to be announced by Govt. DA/DR from July, 2014	6	Jul,14	252	2896	241.33	108.48%	113%
	1	Aug,14	253	2912	242.67	109.63%
	0	Sep,14	253	2927	243.92	110.71%
	0	Oct,14	253	2939	244.92	111.57%
	0	Nov,14	253	2949	245.75	112.29%
	0	Dec,14	253	2963	246.92	113.30%
	1	Jan,15	254	2980	248.33	114.52%	118%
Expectation of no increase in AICPIN in next 5 months	0	Feb,15	254	2996	249.67	115.68%
	0	Mar,15	254	3011	250.92	116.76%
	0	Apr,15	254	3023	251.92	117.62%
	0	May,15	254	3033	252.75	118.34%
	0	Jun,15	254	3041	253.42	118.92%
	Expected DA/DR from July-2015
Expectation of total 5 points increase in AICPIN in next 5 months	1	Feb,15	255	2997	249.75	115.75%	120%
	1	Mar,15	256	3014	251.17	116.97%
	1	Apr,15	257	3029	252.42	118.05%
	1	May,15	258	3043	253.58	119.06%
	1	Jun,15	259	3056	254.67	120.00%
	Expected DA/DR from July-2015
Expectation of total 5 points decline in AICPIN in next 5 months	-1	Feb,15	253	2995	249.58	115.60%	117%
	-1	Mar,15	252	3008	250.67	116.54%
	-1	Apr,15	251	3017	251.42	117.19%
	-1	May,15	250	3023	251.92	117.62%
	-1	Jun,15	249	3026	252.17	117.84%
	Expected DA/DR from July-2015

You may also download/save the excel sheet for self calculation.  The link for excel sheet is given below:

DOWNLOAD: EXCEL FILE FOR EXPECTED DEARNESS CALCULATION TO CALCULATE YOURSELF [click on File-Menu & download]

Press Release of AICPIN for Jan 2015 – 1 Points increased and stands at 254:-

No. 5/1/2015- CPI

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF LABOUR & EMPLOYMENT

LABOUR BUREAU

‘CLEREMONT’, SHIMLA-l71004

DATED: the 27 th February, 2015

Press Release

Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-1W) - January, 2015

The All-India CPHW for January, 2015 increased by 1 point and pegged at 254 (two hundred and fifty four). On 1-month percentage change, it increased by 0.40 per cent between December, 2014 and January, 2015 when compared with the decrease of (-) 0.84 per cent between the same two months a year ago.

The largest upward pressure to the change in current index came from Housing group contributing (+) 1.36 percentage points to the total change. At item level, Wheat, Wheat Atta, Arhar Dal, Masur Dal, Moong Dal, Groundnut Oil, Mustard Oil, Fish Fresh, Goat Meat, Milk, Cigarette, Firewood etc. are responsible for the increase in index. However, this increase was restricted by Rice, Eggs (Hen), Onion, Vegetable and Fruit items, Sugar, Petrol etc., putting downward pressure on the index.

The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-1W stood at 7.17 per cent for January, 2015 as compared to 5.86 per cent for the previous month and 7.24 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at 7.81 per cent against 5.73 per cent of the previous month and 8.94 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year.

At centre level, Haldia reported a maximum increase of 18 points followed by Jamshedpur (7 points), Lucknow (6 points), Quilon (5 points) and Srinagar & Vadodra (4 points each). Among others, 3 points rise was observed in 6 centres, 2 points in 9 centres and 1 point in 17 centres. On the contrary, Rourkela recorded maximum decrease of 7 points followed by Bhilai & Coimbatore (5 points each), Madurai Labac Silchar (4 points each). Among others, 3 points fall was registered in 5 centres, 2 points in 2 centres and 1 point in 13 centres. Rest of the 15 centres’ indices remained stationary.

The indices of 36 centres are above All India Index and other 40 centres’ indices are below national average. The index of Bhopal and Bokaro centre remained at par with all-India index.

The next index of CPI-1W for the month of February, 2015 will be released on Tuesday, 31st March, 2015. The same will also be available on the office website www. labourbureau. gov. in.

sd/-

(S. S. EGI)

DIRECTOR

Source: http://labourbureau.nic.in/press%20note%20eng%20jan%202015.pdf