Why 2012 will be better

Luckily, most of us are not Mayans, who predicted the end of the world in 2012, and will survive the year. Unluckily, most of us are not Maya either, unable as we are to transcend harsh reality and live the illusion whereby the empowerment of one means empowerment of the many. Yet, if for no reason other than that farce is superior to tragedy, 2012 is likely to be superior to the year that is drawing to a close.
The coming year will be more democratic than 2011. The Arab Spring always had the promise of giving way to a torrid summer. With the US completing its troop withdrawal from Iraq, the Egyptian army called upon to transfer power to civilians and Syria likely having to choose between cracking up and cracking down, 2012 is likely to see some climate change in the Arab lands for the better.
The US will not be able to sustain its double standards forever, either on Saudi or Israeli repression. But for proliferation of standards to end, we will have to wait for one more year -- 2012, after all, is an election year in the US when any kind of foreign policy change becomes too much of a risk for any party. In any case, the Jasmine revolution is more likely to bloom rather than wilt in the Arab lands.
Nepal is likely to consolidate the democratic advances made so far while the junta will, in all probability, further unconsolidate itself in Myanmar. In Pakistan, democracy will be forced to try and assert itself against the army's unconstitutional rule. Pak Generals would be tempted to celebrate the vastly enhanced legitimacy of their illegitimate children, the Taliban, but at the expense of bits of their land blowing up every now and then in uncontrollable schism spawned by religious zealotry that refuses to abide by its founding logic of instrumentality.
In India, popular enchantment with Anna Hazare is likely to ebb. The elections to the Uttar Pradesh assembly will be a decisive turning point, coming in early enough in the year to shape the rest of it decisively. The Congress is likely to win more assembly seats--not only more than it holds at present but also more than the number of assembly segments in the 22 parliamentary constituencies it holds in the state right now.
This would be treated as a gamechanger in national politics, reviving the Congress in the heartland, rejuvenating its leadership and reinvigorating the government at the Centre. Such multiple re-iterations carry the farcical risk of second comings in history, true; but then, that is better than tragedy at a national plane, you would agree.
On the economic front, too, things are likely to look up. The US economy would begin to grow at least at 2% a year, and that means adding $300 billion to global output, as much as China's contribution to global growth, growing at thrice the rate.
Eurozone problems will continue, weakening the Euro and making German produce even more competitive than it is now, boosting that country's exports, GDP and national willingness to pick up the tab of managing a crisis that has served it so well so far Japanese companies will continue to do well, even as the Japanese economy straggles on. Africa and Latin America will join East Asia's growth bandwagon Their collective momentum will help India as well.
In India, the government is likely to use its post-UP political authority to crack the whip on a blustery Mamata, throw her a Bengal package, and notify 51% foreign investment in multi-brand retail. It could also decontrol diesel prices and persuade the RBI to start lowering interest rates. The BJP will find it difficult to hold out on the Goods and Services Tax indefinitely, particularly with a sensible Sushil Modi, convinced of the benefits it would bring to the states and to the national economy, heading the empowered committee of state finance ministers. This would be a very major reform for the Indian economy.
Sebi would, with legal backing, license full-fledged operations of the MCX stock exchange, which would, in redoubled competition with the National Stock Exchange, kickstart a market for corporate debt, opening up one more channel for the inflow of foreign investment, deepening the market for foreign exchange.
The telecom ministry would get out of the shadow of the 2G scam, refarming whole swathes of spectrum for wireless data transmission, both because the economy needs the spectrum and because the new price at which now bountiful spectrum is allocated would show up the folly of CAG's notional loss estimate.
The petroleum ministry would allow BP to make vital investments needed to boost the flow of gas from the KG basin. Posco would have the good sense to negotiate directly with the protesting villagers in Orissa, instead of with middlemen, settle on a handsome compensation package. These two developments, along with FDI in retail, would boost direct investment inflow. A host of European companies would look to set up shop in India, to compensate for flagging growth in Europe.

In short, wish you a happy new year!
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